Bitcoin’s price is at risk of falling below its previous all-time highs from March 2024, wiping out gains from what has been referred to as the “Trump pump.” With BTC/USD seeing significant losses, traders and analysts are closely watching for a potential bottom.
BTC Price Fills Key CME Futures Gap
One of the major focus points for analysts is the “gap” in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. This gap was formed during Bitcoin’s ascent past $100,000 and has now become a crucial level to monitor.
The key range in question lies at $78,000, and as of February 28, BTC/USD has nearly completed filling this void.
“Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to filling its CME Gap formed back in November 2024. The CME Gap is between $78,000 and ~$80,700,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital confirmed in a post on X.
While this downside gap is being filled, Rekt Capital also pointed out an upside CME gap at around $92,000, which could become a potential target if Bitcoin experiences a relief bounce.
CME gaps often act as short-term price magnets for Bitcoin, with historical data showing that these gaps tend to be revisited either shortly after their formation or later when macro trends shift.
Long-Term Target of $76,000 Remains in Play
Despite Bitcoin’s rise to record highs near $110,000, some seasoned market participants have maintained a cautious stance on its near-term trajectory.
One such figure is BitQuant, a pseudonymous crypto analyst known for accurately predicting key BTC price movements. Throughout Bitcoin’s climb, BitQuant has consistently warned of a potential major correction.
In December, he dismissed the idea that $90,000 would serve as a reliable support level, stating, “Sorry, but no, $90K was not the dip.”
Now, BitQuant remains firm in his prediction that Bitcoin will dip into the mid-$70,000 range before resuming an “up only” trend.
“Are you panicking again? Panic buying or panic selling?” he asked his followers on X, emphasizing the emotional volatility surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements.
Exchange Liquidity Suggests Strong Interest Between $70,000-$80,000
When it comes to identifying market bottoms, traders often look at exchange order books to gauge buyer interest. However, this approach comes with risks, as large players can manipulate liquidity by adding or removing buy orders at strategic levels.
At present, significant liquidity is forming between the $70,000-$80,000 range, suggesting that buyers are prepared to step in at those levels.
“$BTC ~$1.8 Billion in Bids has appeared on the Binance futures pair. These bids are sitting between $70K-$79K,” trader Daan Crypto Trades noted.
“What happens when bids like these appear is varied. Sometimes price never moves into them, when it does start hitting them, it often fills a lot of them before (shortly) reversing. Keep in mind, these are bids that can just as easily be pulled away. Highlighting this as it’s an insane amount and this is something you rarely ever see.”
While this level of liquidity might indicate strong support, it is also important to consider the risk of price manipulation. Large market participants can add significant buy orders only to remove them before execution, causing traders to misinterpret market trends.
Market Liquidations and the Danger of Catching a Falling Knife
Bitcoin’s price decline has led to a surge in liquidations, particularly among long positions. According to monitoring resource CoinGlass, over $3 billion in long positions have been liquidated in just five days.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading suite Material Indicators, highlighted the risks of trying to predict the bottom too early, a practice often referred to as “catching a falling knife.”
“This is the Bitcoin correction we’ve been waiting for,” he stated on X, sharing a daily BTC/USD chart.
“I’m looking for a wick to the trend line. More importantly, I’m looking for buyers to come in…as long as they don’t front run me.”
As Bitcoin traders and investors navigate the ongoing correction, the market remains highly volatile. Whether Bitcoin will find support in the $70,000-$80,000 zone or see further declines remains a critical question in the days ahead. One thing is certain: Bitcoin’s price action continues to be shaped by both technical factors and large-scale market movements, making it an unpredictable yet compelling asset to watch.
