Bitcoin (BTC) could drop as low as $77,000 and still maintain its bullish trajectory in 2025, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. In a series of posts on February 19, Ju emphasized that a 30% correction would align with historical trends while keeping the uptrend intact.
No Bear Market in Sight
Despite Bitcoin’s sideways price action and failure to reclaim $100,000, Ju remains confident in its long-term growth.
“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year,” he stated, analyzing investor cost bases.
According to Ju, even a drop to $77,000 would not signal a bear market but rather a standard correction within a broader bull cycle.
Key Support Levels and Market Dynamics
Ju highlighted key price levels, including the cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors at $89,000, which has served as strong support since November. Other crucial levels include:
- $59,000 – Aggregate breakeven for Binance traders.
- $57,000 – Bitcoin mining companies’ profitability threshold.
Historically, falling below these levels has indicated bear markets, such as in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018.
Post-Halving Performance Signals More Upside
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s post-halving performance remains “unfinished.” Contributing analyst Timo Oinonen noted that since the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin has only gained 60%.
Oinonen expects a potential sell-off in May, followed by a sideways summer and a strong Q4 rally, as seen in past cycles. He emphasized that major corrections could be months or even a year away.
With historical patterns supporting continued bullish momentum, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains promising, even in the face of short-term volatility.
