Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 90% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Litecoin (LTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2025. They believe Litecoin’s approval process may be more straightforward compared to other cryptocurrencies due to its established regulatory filings and the SEC’s likely classification of it as a commodity.
In contrast, Seyffart and Balchunas assign lower approval probabilities for spot ETFs of other cryptocurrencies: 65% for XRP, 70% for Solana (SOL), and 75% for Dogecoin (DOGE). The analysts note that the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s 19b-4 filing to list a spot Litecoin ETF indicates that Litecoin is next in line for approval, following Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The anticipated approval of a Litecoin ETF is part of a broader trend, following the strong demand for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which have seen significant net inflows since their launches in January and July 2024, respectively. While a Litecoin ETF may not attract the same level of demand, Seyffart suggests that even with modest inflows, such ETFs can be worthwhile for fund companies. He states, “They don’t have to hit it out of the park on a flows basis to be worthwhile from an issuer perspective.”
The final SEC decision deadlines for the proposed Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs are scheduled between October 2 and October 18, 2025. Seyffart indicates that a Litecoin ETF could potentially launch before these dates.
The analysts also highlight that prior to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the approval odds for these crypto ETFs, except for Litecoin, were below 5%. The election outcome appears to have positively influenced the perceived likelihood of their approval.
However, regulatory uncertainties persist for other cryptocurrencies. For instance, the SEC’s ongoing lawsuit against Ripple raises questions about XRP’s status, which may need resolution before an XRP ETF can be approved. Similarly, Solana’s classification must be clarified before the SEC can evaluate it under a commodities ETF framework.
Analysts are optimistic about the approval of a spot Litecoin ETF in 2025, viewing it as a significant development in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investment products.
