U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs may collectively hold 1 million Bitcoin as soon as this week, as favorable market factors could drive strong inflows into the asset. Traders are anticipating several potential tailwinds in November, including the U.S. election, a possible Federal Reserve rate cut, and Russia’s decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban.
Currently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF issuers hold 976,893 Bitcoin, valued at over $66.2 billion, nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s total $1.34 trillion market cap, according to data from Apollo and SoSoValue. To reach the 1 million Bitcoin mark, ETFs would need around $1.55 billion in new inflows, which translates to approximately $301 million in daily net inflows this week.
Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani highlighted that $3 billion has flowed into these ETFs over the past two weeks, noting, “If this pace continues through November, ATH will be [inevitable].” Historical patterns also suggest a possible rally; in 2020, Bitcoin surged by nearly 43% in November following the halving event and President Joe Biden’s election win. CK Zheng, chief investment officer at ZX Squared Capital, believes a similar price movement could happen this year, regardless of the election outcome.
Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson, sees a Trump victory as potentially the strongest factor for a crypto market rally, predicting it could drive Bitcoin to $100,000 by year-end. “If that were to happen, Bitcoin would set a decisive new ATH and make big headlines around the world,” Andersson shared with Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s recent price gains have also drawn institutional interest. Emory University, for instance, reported a $15.1 million investment in the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust.
In addition, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on Nov. 6-7 may bring a rate cut, which could relieve financial pressures and benefit markets in the short term. Meanwhile, Russia’s decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban on Nov. 1 is expected to contribute positively to Bitcoin’s decentralization and security. Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, with strong support at $65,000, but traders warn that losing this level could expose Bitcoin to a lower support range near $60,000.
