Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s lead in the decentralized betting market Polymarket is approaching 67%, largely due to the continued activity of a mysterious whale betting on his victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Trump’s odds surged to over 66.3% on Oct. 28, fueled by another $2 million USD Coin (USDC) bet placed in his favor. Data from Polymarket reveals that this whale, identified as “zxgngl,” has now spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares for Trump’s win, accumulating an unrealized profit of $256,000, according to Lookonchain, an on-chain intelligence firm.
With the election just days away, decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket are being considered by some, including billionaire Elon Musk, as potentially more accurate than traditional polling methods. Trump’s odds on the platform flipped in his favor on Oct. 4, marking a significant reversal from earlier trends, with his lead widening by over 10 points by Oct. 12.
Unlike previous top Trump bettor “Fredi9999,” who drove Trump’s odds past 60% with over $20 million in “Yes” shares, zxgngl’s betting patterns and sources of funding appear distinct. Lookonchain data shows that while Fredi’s transactions predominantly originated from Kraken deposits, zxgngl’s account is funded by deposits from Binance. This whale’s last two deposits were substantial, at $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively, adding to their confidence in a Trump victory.
According to political bettor “Domer,” who spoke to Cointelegraph, this behavior likely signals a “true believer” with considerable wealth betting on Trump. Domer speculates that the bettor is caught in a “confirmation bias loop,” where increasing odds reinforce their confidence.
As the election draws near, these high-stakes bets on Polymarket underline the growing role of crypto-based platforms in forecasting outcomes and shaping perceptions in real time.
