As the U.S. presidential election approaches, crypto prediction market Polymarket has taken a prominent role in election forecasting, but its founder, Shayne Coplan, insists it has no political affiliation.
“Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t. From launch day, the goal has been to harness the power of free markets to demystify the real-world events that matter most to you,” Coplan shared in an Oct. 25 post on X.
Addressing rumors that Polymarket might lean politically, Coplan dismissed these speculations, saying, “Unfortunately, the story is much less juicy. We’re just market nerds who think prediction markets provide the public with a much-needed alternative data source.” He emphasized, “Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day.”
As the election season heats up, Coplan noted that Polymarket has been “pulled onto center stage,” attributing its popularity to public dissatisfaction with traditional pundits and “incongruent polls.” He highlighted Polymarket’s accurate prediction of Biden’s recent polling downturn as evidence of its forecasting accuracy.
Coplan sees this political engagement as an entry point for people to appreciate the power of market-based forecasting, stating, “Politics is the first step to get the masses to realize the value of market-based forecasts.”
Interest in Polymarket surged after tech billionaire Elon Musk endorsed the platform, saying it could predict the 2024 election results more accurately than traditional polling. At that time, Polymarket showed Donald Trump leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by about three percentage points. “Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk commented.
However, Trump’s 20-point lead on Polymarket on Oct. 20 sparked concerns about possible market manipulation. Tarek Mansour, founder of rival prediction market Kalshi, countered these concerns, presenting similar data from Kalshi to affirm that the results reflect genuine sentiment rather than manipulation.
