The behavior of top bettors on Polymarket has raised concerns about potential manipulation impacting the accuracy of the decentralized prediction market.
Former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election have been notably influenced by a major bettor on Polymarket known as “Fredi9999,” who has placed more than $20 million in pro-Trump bets.
Top Bettor’s Influence
The revelation comes shortly after Trump’s odds on Polymarket surged to a record high of 60.2% on October 16, as reported by Cointelegraph. This increase in Trump’s odds has sparked questions, as the shift does not seem to be connected to any significant real-world events that could explain the change in public perception.
Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trade, commented on the situation, stating, “What’s paradoxical is that the situation on Polymarket is now influencing the real world, where many people believe what they see on the platform. The upcoming U.S. presidential election will serve as a key example for assessing the reliability of prediction markets.”
As the election approaches, with less than three weeks until Election Day, the focus on evaluating potential manipulation in prediction markets has intensified.
Possible Control Over Top Trump Bettor Accounts
There are suspicions that “Fredi9999” may be controlling the top four Trump-related accounts on Polymarket. According to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, transaction patterns suggest a coordinated influence. Domer noted in an October 16 post, “The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere. Theo received a large deposit and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.”
This activity has led to questions about whether a single user or group could be artificially inflating Trump’s odds on Polymarket, potentially affecting the perception of his chances in the election.