The newly-approved spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could launch as early as mid-June if the United States securities regulator follows a timeline similar to its spot Bitcoin ETF process.
Spot Ether ETFs received approval for their 19b-4 filings, allowing the funds to be listed on their respective exchanges.
However, applicants must first obtain approved S-1 registration statements to begin trading.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has suggested that S-1 approvals could come in a “couple of weeks,” though he also noted that the process could take longer, typically up to five months.
Fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas responded that “mid-June is certainly poss[ible].”
Balchunas expects there will only be one round of comments on the S-1 amendments, similar to the SEC’s feedback process for spot Bitcoin ETF applicants.
He noted that this process took about two weeks, which is why he estimates mid-June as a possible launch date. “Just a guess tho.
“We will see,” Balchunas added.
VanEck filed its amended S-1 shortly after having its 19b-4 approved, and other applicants are expected to follow suit soon.
However, Delphi Labs general counsel Gabriel Shapiro noted the SEC’s approval was made by its Division of Trading and Markets unit on a “delegated authority,” claiming that one of the five SEC Commissioners could challenge the decision within the next 10 days.
Digital asset lawyer Joe Carlasare told Cointelegraph that such a challenge could theoretically happen—“but it won’t.”
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“They wouldn’t have passed it through trading and markets without knowing that no Commissioner opposed it.”
Seyffart disagrees, noting that making decisions with delegated authority “is the norm” as requiring an official vote for every decision and document “would be insane.”
He added that asking for a review likely “wouldn’t change anything” about the approvals.
If the S-1s are approved, Seyffart expects the spot Ether ETFs will see 20% of the flows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen, while Balchunas estimates a smaller range of 10-15%.
According to Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs have tallied $13.3 billion in net inflow since their launch roughly four and a half months ago.
Capturing 20% of that would mean spot Ether ETFs could tally a combined $2.66 billion over the same timeframe.
Some worry that the spot Ether ETF market could see significant outflows from the converted Grayscale Ethereum Trust into spot ETF form, similar to outflows seen with the firm’s converted Bitcoin investment product.
More than $11.3 billion is locked in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, according to Arkham Intelligence.
On May 23, eight applicants received regulatory approval: VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, ARK 21Shares, Bitwise, and Invesco Galaxy.
Hashdex was the only ETF issuer that did not receive approval.
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