In 2024, XRP has underperformed compared to Bitcoin, experiencing a decline of approximately 2.5% year-to-date (YTD), while Bitcoin has surged by 60% over the same period.
Consequently, the XRP/BTC exchange rate has fallen by 40% YTD.
Despite this, there are emerging signs of recovery for XRP as the Bitcoin halving approaches, supported by several bullish indicators that may enhance its performance post-event.
Historically, XRP has shown a pattern of excelling relative to Bitcoin around halving times.
For example, following the third Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the XRP/BTC pair surged over 100%.
A similar trend was observed around the second halving in July 2016 when the pair increased by 85%.
These trends suggest a positive outlook for XRP after the forthcoming halving scheduled for April 19.
The observed gains in the XRP/BTC pair are largely attributed to a decrease in Bitcoin’s market dominance post-halving, prompting traders to shift investments from Bitcoin to altcoins—a phenomenon often referred to as “altseason.”
Altcoins like XRP can potentially offer substantial short-term gains owing to their smaller market caps and higher volatility compared to Bitcoin.
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From a technical perspective, XRP/BTC has been following a falling wedge pattern since February, which is characterized by its price fluctuating within a space defined by two descending, converging trendlines.
This pattern is generally seen as a bullish reversal indicator, suggesting an upward move once the price breaks above the upper trendline.
For XRP, the breakout target for April/May is projected at 0.00001022 BTC, which represents an increase of about 16.75% from current levels.
Looking further ahead, XRP’s weekly price target against Bitcoin by June 2024 is set to hit its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.00001449 BTC.
This target marks a significant 70% rise from its current price. Traders have consistently focused on this 50-week EMA as a bullish target following the previous Bitcoin halvings.
Additionally, XRP is witnessing a notable accumulation phase among its largest investors.
Since early March, there has been a marked increase in the number of entities holding over 1 million XRP tokens.
From April, the number of holders possessing at least 100,000 XRP tokens has also started to rise, indicating a growing bullish sentiment among whales in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving.
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