The Bitcoin bull market officially commenced on March 1, as stated by the pseudonymous quantitative analyst PlanB, renowned for the contentious stock-to-flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin’s price.
The accumulation phase for Bitcoin (BTC) has drawn to a close, along with the easily accessible Bitcoin buying opportunities, as highlighted in a recent post by PlanB, referencing the S2F chart.
“Bull market has started. If history is any guide, we will see ~10 months of face-melting [fear of missing out] FOMO: extreme price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops.”
This forecast from the anonymous analyst emerged just two days following Bitcoin’s surge past $60,000 for the first time in over two years.
Bitcoin observed a slight decline of 0.75% in the 24-hour period ending at 3:00 pm Central European Time, settling at $62,472.
Despite its popularity during the 2021 bull run, the S2F model isn’t infallible.
As per the chart, Bitcoin was projected to surpass the $100,000 mark in early August 2021, when it was hovering around $44,000.
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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also criticized the S2F model, citing it gives investors a “false sense of certainty.”
PlanB’s projections align with those of other analysts. According to Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, Bitcoin typically consolidates immediately post-halving before rallying in subsequent months.
“While the immediate post-halving performance has tended to be sluggish, each halving has proven to be a solid point to enter the market.
150–400 days after the halving tends to be the sweet spot where the compounding effects of subdued miner selling pressure impact BTC positively directionally.”
Besides the much-awaited halving, the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has also bolstered investor interest in Bitcoin, contributing to its price appreciation.
Although Bitcoin prices corrected by 3% after Grayscale’s recently converted Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF offloaded $598.9 million worth of BTC on Feb. 29, they have surged over 22% in the past week, according to CoinMarketCap data.
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