Grayscale, the crypto asset manager, has seen a deceleration in outflows from its spot Bitcoin ETF, although analysts suggest there’s more potential for further depletion.
As per data from Bianco Research and Farside, the total outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since its transition to a spot Bitcoin ETF reached $7 billion by Feb. 16.
Despite the significantly reduced rate of outflow, observers like ETF Store President Nate Geraci caution that the bleeding may not have ceased entirely.
January marked the peak of the exodus, witnessing $5.64 billion exiting GBTC by month-end, whereas February has recorded only $1.37 billion in outflows thus far.
In a Feb. 18 post on X, Jim Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research and a former Wall Street analyst, attributes much of the outflow to investors rebalancing portfolios and migrating to spot Bitcoin ETFs with lower fees.
He notes that the recent wave of ETF launches has slashed fees to between 0 and 12 basis points, in contrast to Grayscale’s 150 bps charge.
Bianco also highlights another factor contributing to the ongoing outflow from GBTC: the fund traded at a considerable discount to the BTC market price, approximately 44%, when BlackRock applied for its spot ETF in June 2023.
He explains, “A lot of money flows into ‘cheap’ BTC,” suggesting that Grayscale began closing this arbitrage-type trade upon its ETF conversion in January 2024.
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Nate Geraci remains cautious, indicating that it’s premature to assume the asset bleed has concluded.
He speculates that even with a substantial reduction in assets, Grayscale could still surpass other issuers combined.
Moreover, Geraci anticipates the potential launch of a “mini-GBTC,” a new spot Bitcoin ETF by Grayscale, with considerably lower fees.
Further outflows could materialise following a recent court order permitting bankrupt crypto lender Genesis to liquidate a portion of its investments in Grayscale.
Genesis reportedly held approximately $1.6 billion worth of shares in GBTC, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, and the Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust.
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